User:Hurricane Layten/Codings

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TC advisory structure
Tropical Storm Eugene Discussion Number 4 LHC BIRMINGHAM UK 0900 UTC JULY 7 2017

The cloud pattern associated with Eugene has continued to organise, with the Dvorak classifications now at a consensus 3.0, or 45kt, which is the basis of this advisory. The tropical cyclone is currently moving northwest at around 9 mph, and could become a hurricane if the present intensification episode continues. However, after 24 hours, the system is likelyto weaken due to decreasing sea surface temperatures and dry air intrusion.

The cyclone currently consists of a deep convective band that wraps three quarters of the way around a vigorous low level circulation, topped with very cold cloud tops to -63C. This, along with low shear and warm sea surface temperatures of 27-28C should enable a steady intensification to hurricane status in 24 hours, before the factors mentioned above weaken the system, turning post tropical by 72 hours.

FORECAST REASONING
 * INITIAL:  45 KT  50 MPH
 * 12 HOURS: 55 KT  65 MPH
 * 24 HOURS: 70 KT  80 MPH
 * 36 HOURS: 50 KT  60 MPH
 * 48 HOURS: 40 KT  45 MPH
 * 72 HOURS: 30 KT  35 MPH..POST TROPICAL
 * 96 HOURS: 20 KT  25 MPH...REMNANT LOW
 * 120 HOURS: DISSIPATED