Atlantic[]
There are currently no tropical systems notable of mentioning.
Eastern and Central Pacific[]
Tropical Depression Two-E
Discussion Number 1
May 31, 2017 at 1500 UTC
The area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave that was located near 14.0N, 99.0W at 1200 UTC is now located near 13.9N, 97.8W, moving northeast at 3kt. The current intensity estimate of 30 kt is based off a satellite pas around 1300 UTC, which showed 30 kt winds were present to the southeast and southwest of the now closed low level circulation.
The intensity forecast for Two-E is a blending of the NHC forecast, and the ECMWF, HWRF and GFS models, and lies towards the higher end of the guidance selected.
Tropical Depression Two-E is forecast to continue its northeastward track, before making landfall in Mexico in 4 days, if not sooner. There exists a possibility that Two-E might make it to the Gulf based on recent model solutions, and if this does occur with the system still a tropical cyclone, it will retain its eastern Pacific name. The landfall scenario is based off the GFS, HWRF and ECMWF solutions, and appears to be the most likely scenario, giving the motion trend of Two-E's precursor the last several days.
Very heavy rainfall is occurring with this system, and as it draws towards the coast over the next few days, life threatening rainfall could cause flash flooding and mudslides, particularly in highly elevated areas along the coast.
FORECASTS:
- Initial: 13.9N, 97.8W...30kt
- 12 hours:14.1N, 97.5W...35kt
- 24 hours:14.4N, 97.2W...35kt
- 36 hours:14.8N, 96.8W...40kt
- 48 hours:15.1N, 96.5W...45kt
- 72 hours:15.5N, 96.2W...50kt...near the coast
- 96 hours:16.1N, 96.5W...40kt...inland Mexico
- 120 hours:16.9N, 96.1W...30kt...inland Mexico
Western Pacific[]
There are currently no tropical systems notable of mentioning.
North Indian Ocean[]
There are currently no tropical systems notable of mentioning.
South Indian Ocean[]
There are currently no tropical systems notable of mentioning.
Australian Region[]
There are currently no tropical systems notable of mentioning.
Southern Pacific Ocean[]
There are currently no tropical systems notable of mentioning.